Tourism
It is highly likely that the general public will be traveling, touring, and living in space at some time in the twenty-first century. If history is to be followed, the human expansion into space, on a large scale, is a foreseeable prospect for humankind. One possible scenario begins with 30-minute sub-orbital flights by the year 2005, followed by orbital flights of two to three revolutions (three to four-and-a-half hours) by about 2010. Surveys have shown that people would like to have a specific destination in space. That desire suggests a destination such as a resort hotel that can provide several days of accommodation in low Earth orbit, and a hotel like this may be available in about 2020. Beyond that, space hotels could be followed by orbiting
sports stadiums and lunar cruises with excursions to the Moon's surface by 2040. After suborbital rides become commonplace, a new aeroballistic cargo and human transportation system could begin operation, leaving no major transportation hub on Earth more than an hour's flight time away.
Just exactly how and when these new modes of transportation and resorts will materialize is difficult to predict. However, there is an organized effort underway between the private and public sectors to assure that the right ingredients and the proper catalysts are brought together. This effort is multifaceted and includes the government, business, and the general public.
Human space activity to date has been the exclusive domain of the Russian and U.S. governments. But this situation has changed, at least to a small degree. The Russian Aviation and Space Agency has made available one to three seats per year on its Soyuz taxi flights to the International Space Station to anyone who can mentally and physically qualify and pay the ticket price of $20 million. In April 2001 American Dennis Tito became the world's first space tourist by qualifying and paying the required fee for transportation and a week's stay at the station. Mark Shuttleworth, a South African, became the second space tourist to the station in April 2002. The exact size of this market remains to be seen. At the stated price, an extremely small proportion of the population will be able to experience space in this new international facility. However, this is a start and this activity will likely encourage others to act.
Barriers and Obstacles to Space Travel and Tourism
Before space travel and tourism can be made economical, reliable, efficient, and safe for everybody, several obstacles must be overcome and many barriers will have to be removed, as detailed next.
Market Research and Development.
The space travel and tourism market must attract investors and businesspeople. Although there have been a number of space travel and tourism market surveys and analytic studies, a carefully thought-out market survey should be designed and conducted by professionals in the market research field. In addition, ways to enhance the credibility of space tourism by piquing the interest of nontraditional space businesses, which stand to profit from its development, must be realized.
Legislative Measures.
Several legislative measures have been discussed, including three bills that have already been introduced in Congress, that could create favorable conditions for investors and entrepreneurs to join in new commercial space ventures. U.S. Senator John Breaux (D-LA) introduced a bill to make Federal Government insured loans available to space transportation companies; Congressman Nick Lampson (D-TX) introduced a bill to make Federal Government insured loans available to space tourism companies; and Congressman Ken Calvert (R-CA), et al., introduced a bill to provide tax credits to purchasers of space transportation vehicle provider stock. These bills are being evaluated along with other initiatives to be studied including relief from taxes on company-expended space research and development funds, and tax breaks for profits earned during a venture's start-up years.
Technology and Operations.
There is a need to go far beyond space shuttle technology and operational capabilities. The shuttle's costs, depending on the annual budget and flight rate, are between $500 million and $750 million per flight, and it takes approximately six months to process orbiters between flights. From these baseline parameters, it is essential to lower the unit cost and decrease the turnaround time between flights. Furthermore, reliability must be increased before space travel and tourism can become safe and affordable for the vast majority of the general public.
Medical Science.
There are volumes of recorded data about how a nearly physically perfect human specimen reacts to the space environment but no information about people with common physical limitations and treatable maladies. For example, how would the medicines taken by a large percentage of the general public act on the human body in a state of weightlessness? Astronauts and cosmonauts are physiologically screened for their ability to react quickly and correctly under extreme pressure in emergency situations, but early living in space will be characterized by cramped living conditions, common hygienic and eating facilities, and semiprivate sleeping quarters. Such conditions are conducive to unrest and conflict among certain individuals, making screening of early space tourists for temperament and tolerance a must.
Regulatory Factors.
Methods must be devised through public and private sector efforts that will allow an orderly, safe, and reliable progression of certification and approval of a venture's equipment without the imposition of potentially crippling costs. Initially it will not be possible to match the safety and reliability levels of conventional aircraft that have evolved over time. Instead, a system is needed that will allow voluntary personal risk to be taken in excess of that involved in flying on modern aircraft while fully protecting the safety of third parties (people and property not affiliated with the operator and/or customer).
Legal Factors.
Just as there are laws for operating on Earth's land surface and oceans, there will be a need for laws for operating in space and on and
around other celestial bodies. The United Nations treaty governing the use of space must be improved and expanded to take into account eventual space operations involving people and accommodating infrastructure. From the navigational rules of space lanes to real estate claims for settlement or mining purposes, laws will have to be created by international legal bodies to provide order and justice on the final frontier.
Finance and Insurance.
Perhaps the most prominent obstacle that must be overcome is the lack of financing available for private space ventures, particularly those involving new reusable launch vehicles (RLVs). Several RLV development programs have been stalled because of an inability to find investors. Persuading investors to accept some front-end risk in return for the large rewards that will be realized in the years ahead is the main challenge. Legislation to ease the risk is one potential solution. Innovative methods for raising capital (e.g., tax-exempt bonds) and other ways to lower the risks to acceptable levels will have to come from the investment and insurance communities.
Space should be seen as another medium that will be developed for business and recreational purposes, contributing to the welfare and enjoyment of all the world's people. Before long space will become an extension of Earth itself.
Bibliography
Haltermann, Robert L. Going Public 2001: Moving Toward the Development of a Large Space Travel and Tourism Business. Proceedings of the 3rd Space Travel and Tourism Conference. Washington DC: Space Transportation Association, 2001.
O'Neil, Daniel, ed. STA General Public Space Travel and Tourism Study Report. Volume 1 Executive Summary. Huntsville, AL: Marshall Space Flight Center, 1998.
